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What’s Next with Commercial Real Estate?

Commercial Real Estate has never been in a better spot but you have to ask the question, what’s coming next?

MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell expressed his opinion for the sector at the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Servicing & Technology Conference.

“We’re currently in the longest economic expansion ever,” Woodwell said. “There have been a couple negative quarters here and there, but not two in a row, which is the definition of a recession. So there’s been an incredibly long run of economic expansion.

Woodwell quoted multiple record-setting metrics: Commercial property cap rates are at record lows; MBA accounted a record $574 billion in multifamily and commercial mortgage bankers originations last year; plus loan delinquency rates are at or near record lows.

So, there are a lot of phenomena going on, putting us in a place we’ve never seen before,” Woodwell said. “Thus, the question becomes what’s next?

That answer is dependent on your outlook on life.

People on the optimistic spectrum may say they don’t see anything likely to change the current thriving situation. While others may say, “it’s been a great run, so I’m going to get ready for what comes next,” Woodwell said.UES Consulting Services, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments KC, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments Midwest, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments US, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments KC, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments Midwest, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments US, Phase I ESA, Phase I ESAs, Phase I ESAs KC, Phase I ESAs Midwest, Phase I ESAs US, Phase 1 ESAs, Phase 1 ESAs KC, Phase 1 ESAs Midwest, Phase 1 ESAs US, leader in environmental consulting and engineering services, engineering services Kansas City, environmental consulting Kansas City, Phase I Environmental Consulting, Phase 1 Environmental Consulting, Phase I Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase 1 Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase II Environmental Consulting, Phase 2 Environmental Consulting, Phase II Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase 2 Environmental Consulting Kansas City

So let’s get into the details…

Woodwell used the first quarter’s 3.2% real GDP growth rate to back the current strength of the U.S. economy. Unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point in 50 years and job growth has averaged above 200,000 per month thus far in 2019. “That’s boosted wages, which economists had expected would happen well before now,” said Woodwell.

On the other end, our economies great performance could guide some inflation pressure. “But that has not yet materialized,” Woodwell said. “Some think trade tariffs could start to bring more inflation on.”

With this economic situation, each commercial property type has a unique story to tell…

Multifamily sector: Moving fast in terms of both supply and demand for apartments. The younger generation is filling the shoes of their parents, which supports high demand for multifamily properties. The main surge is in Millennials since they’re beginning to demand apartments and form households; mainly high-quality urban newly developed apartments.

Office sector: Shows a long steady run of positive job growth, but on the flip side, companies are using a smaller space per employee; which leads to the recent fairly stable market. Nevertheless, wage pressure increases while employers struggle to keep their top employees in the middle of an extended strong job market.

One tool employers could use would be to reverse the recent trend of shrinking office space and increase the room given to employees in an effort to compete for talent,” he said.

Retail sector: Definitely has witnessed the largest changes, mostly due to E-commerce, which has taken over almost 10% of all retail sales and persists to grow 3 basis points each quarter.

“But consumer consumption is strong enough that both E-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores can grow–as long as consumer spending continues, Woodwell said. “But if consumer spending should slip, which will lose more?,” he asked.

Industrial Sector: Has experienced positive evolving changes that have rarely been seen in the past such as new warehouse properties with a second or third story. With manufacturing shipments and E-commerce growing at record highs, the industrial sector continues to thrive–and evolve.

In conclusion…

When I think about what’s likely to happen, I come back to the idea of a plateau,” Woodwell said. “Coming off a record year of originations, I don’t see much pulling those numbers down, and I also don’t see much pushing those numbers much higher, so we generally see a plateau for originations for the next few years. If we continue to run at this level, that still means growth in mortgage debt outstanding because of maturities, and that means there will likely be more need for servicers like you to service these loans.”

Need help with any Commercial Real Estate transactions?

Wrapping up summer with UES sponsoring the RISE Rooftop Crawl

/
RISE ROOFTOP CRAWL What is it?! Kansas City's fifth annual…

UES to sponsor CREW KC's 16th Annual Golf Classic!

/
Join us at CREW Kansas City's 16th Annual Golf Classic for an…

Commercial and Multifamily Originations Set a Record by Rising to New Levels

/
Commercial and Multifamily Originations rose to new levels in 2018 with a record amount of loans resulting in $573.9 billion loans. Learn how this happened, what factors such as growing property values, low interest rates, solid fundamentals, and strong appetites from lenders and borrowers led to this record. We break down the numbers and find out Commercial Bank portfolios led the capital source then GSEs, Government Sponsored Enterprises, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae then Life Insurance Companies and pension funds, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities issuers, investment funds, REITs and mortgage REITS. Multifamily properties had the highest mortgage bankers' origination volume followed by retail properties, industrial, health care, office buildings, and hotel/motel

What’s Next with Commercial Real Estate?

Commercial Real Estate has never been in a better spot but you have to ask the question, what’s coming next?

MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell expressed his opinion for the sector at the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Servicing & Technology Conference.

“We’re currently in the longest economic expansion ever,” Woodwell said. “There have been a couple negative quarters here and there, but not two in a row, which is the definition of a recession. So there’s been an incredibly long run of economic expansion.

Woodwell quoted multiple record-setting metrics: Commercial property cap rates are at record lows; MBA accounted a record $574 billion in multifamily and commercial mortgage bankers originations last year; plus loan delinquency rates are at or near record lows.

So, there are a lot of phenomena going on, putting us in a place we’ve never seen before,” Woodwell said. “Thus, the question becomes what’s next?

That answer is dependent on your outlook on life.

People on the optimistic spectrum may say they don’t see anything likely to change the current thriving situation. While others may say, “it’s been a great run, so I’m going to get ready for what comes next,” Woodwell said.UES Consulting Services, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments KC, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments Midwest, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments US, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments KC, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments Midwest, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments US, Phase I ESA, Phase I ESAs, Phase I ESAs KC, Phase I ESAs Midwest, Phase I ESAs US, Phase 1 ESAs, Phase 1 ESAs KC, Phase 1 ESAs Midwest, Phase 1 ESAs US, leader in environmental consulting and engineering services, engineering services Kansas City, environmental consulting Kansas City, Phase I Environmental Consulting, Phase 1 Environmental Consulting, Phase I Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase 1 Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase II Environmental Consulting, Phase 2 Environmental Consulting, Phase II Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase 2 Environmental Consulting Kansas City

So let’s get into the details…

Woodwell used the first quarter’s 3.2% real GDP growth rate to back the current strength of the U.S. economy. Unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point in 50 years and job growth has averaged above 200,000 per month thus far in 2019. “That’s boosted wages, which economists had expected would happen well before now,” said Woodwell.

On the other end, our economies great performance could guide some inflation pressure. “But that has not yet materialized,” Woodwell said. “Some think trade tariffs could start to bring more inflation on.”

With this economic situation, each commercial property type has a unique story to tell…

Multifamily sector: Moving fast in terms of both supply and demand for apartments. The younger generation is filling the shoes of their parents, which supports high demand for multifamily properties. The main surge is in Millennials since they’re beginning to demand apartments and form households; mainly high-quality urban newly developed apartments.

Office sector: Shows a long steady run of positive job growth, but on the flip side, companies are using a smaller space per employee; which leads to the recent fairly stable market. Nevertheless, wage pressure increases while employers struggle to keep their top employees in the middle of an extended strong job market.

One tool employers could use would be to reverse the recent trend of shrinking office space and increase the room given to employees in an effort to compete for talent,” he said.

Retail sector: Definitely has witnessed the largest changes, mostly due to E-commerce, which has taken over almost 10% of all retail sales and persists to grow 3 basis points each quarter.

“But consumer consumption is strong enough that both E-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores can grow–as long as consumer spending continues, Woodwell said. “But if consumer spending should slip, which will lose more?,” he asked.

Industrial Sector: Has experienced positive evolving changes that have rarely been seen in the past such as new warehouse properties with a second or third story. With manufacturing shipments and E-commerce growing at record highs, the industrial sector continues to thrive–and evolve.

In conclusion…

When I think about what’s likely to happen, I come back to the idea of a plateau,” Woodwell said. “Coming off a record year of originations, I don’t see much pulling those numbers down, and I also don’t see much pushing those numbers much higher, so we generally see a plateau for originations for the next few years. If we continue to run at this level, that still means growth in mortgage debt outstanding because of maturities, and that means there will likely be more need for servicers like you to service these loans.”

Need help with any Commercial Real Estate transactions?

Wrapping up summer with UES sponsoring the RISE Rooftop Crawl

/
RISE ROOFTOP CRAWL What is it?! Kansas City's fifth annual…

UES to sponsor CREW KC's 16th Annual Golf Classic!

/
Join us at CREW Kansas City's 16th Annual Golf Classic for an…

Commercial and Multifamily Originations Set a Record by Rising to New Levels

/
Commercial and Multifamily Originations rose to new levels in 2018 with a record amount of loans resulting in $573.9 billion loans. Learn how this happened, what factors such as growing property values, low interest rates, solid fundamentals, and strong appetites from lenders and borrowers led to this record. We break down the numbers and find out Commercial Bank portfolios led the capital source then GSEs, Government Sponsored Enterprises, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae then Life Insurance Companies and pension funds, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities issuers, investment funds, REITs and mortgage REITS. Multifamily properties had the highest mortgage bankers' origination volume followed by retail properties, industrial, health care, office buildings, and hotel/motel

Everything to know about Qualified Opportunity Zones in the United States

So… what exactly is an Opportunity Zone?

Opportunity Zones are economically-distressed communities where new investments, under specific conditions, might be eligible for preferential tax treatment. Districts are eligible to be Opportunity Zones if they have been submitted for that classification by the state and that submission has been certified by the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury via his delegation of authority to the Internal Revenue Service.

What is the purpose of Opportunity Zones?

Opportunity Zones serve as an economic development tool. Furthermore, they are modeled to stimulate economic development and higher the job rate in distressed communities.

Have Opportunity Zones been around for a long time?

No, they were added to the tax code by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on December 22, 2017. The first set of Opportunity Zones, covering sections of 18 states, were selected on April 9, 2018. Opportunity Zones have now been appointed covering sections of all 50 states, five U.S. territories and the District of Columbia.

What is a Qualified Opportunity Fund?

A Qualified Opportunity Fund (QOF) is an investment vehicle that is designed as either a partnership or corporation for investing in qualified property that is in a Qualified Opportunity Zone.

How do Opportunity Zones stimulate economic development?

They are designed to boost economic development by providing tax benefits to investors. First off, investors can postpone tax on any prior gains invested in a Qualified Opportunity Fund (QOF) until the earlier of the date on which the investment in a QOF is sold or exchanged, or December 31, 2026. If the QOF investment is held for more than 5 years, there is a 10% exclusion of the postponed gain.  If held for longer than 7 years, the 10% becomes 15%. Next, if the investor holds the investment in the Opportunity Fund for at least ten years, the investor is qualified for growth in basis of the QOF investment equal to its fair market value on the date that the QOF investment is sold or exchanged.

Do I have to live in an Opportunity Zone to gain the tax benefits?

The answer is no. You may get the tax benefits, even if you don’t work, live or have a business in an Opportunity Zone. You just need to invest a recognized gain in a Qualified Opportunity Fund and elect to defer the tax on that gain.

Is there a list of Opportunity Zones obtainable?

Definitely. This list can be found at Opportunity Zones Resources and in the Federal Register at IRB Notice 2018-48.  In addition, a visual map of the census tracts designated as Qualified Opportunity Zones can be found at Opportunity Zones Resources.

I want to form a Qualified Opportunity Fund. Can  I access a list of Opportunity Zones available in which the Fund can invest?

Yes, this list can be found at Notice 2018-48.

Is it possible for a limited liability company (LLC) to be an Opportunity Fund?

Absolutely. A LLC that decides to be treated as a partnership or corporation for federal tax purposes can classify as a Qualified Opportunity Fund.

How does a partnership or corporation get certified as a Qualified Opportunity Fund?

An eligible partnership or corporation self-certifies by filing Form 8996, Qualified Opportunity Fund, with its federal income tax return. Early-release drafts of the form and instructions are posted, with final versions due in December. The return with Form 8996 has to be filed timely, taking extensions into consideration.

How can I get more information about Opportunity Zones?

Check out this article for more details on Opportunity Zones.

The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service will be giving more details, including further legal guidance, on this new tax benefit.

Need help with environmental consulting, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments, Property Condition Assessments or Phase II Subsurface Investigations?

UES Consulting and our diverse team know how thorough, time-sensitive Phase I Environmental Site Assessments and Property Condition Assessments are and can help the affair run effortless and finish on time. If you are searching for a company to partner with on your commercial real estate transactions of any sort, look to our in-house engineers and environmental consultants to relieve the stress of environmental issues and mitigate risks.

Women who are Inspiring the Commercial Real Estate Industry

Our Chief Marketing Director, Jamie Taylor, is a proud member of Commercial Real Estate Women (CREW) which is an industry networking organization. And according to a recent study published by CREW, women are advancing in commercial real estate, especially in the C-suite, and the shrinking salary gap. However, there are still areas for improvement to get more women intrigued in CRE brokerage, less of an income gap, and leasing and sales positions.

Here are 3 helpful pieces of advice to improve your professional career from respected female leaders in the Commercial Real Estate Industry.

This type of progress comes with lessons learned early on. The first few years of a career can be pivotal to future success.  Whether it is mastering the art of negotiation, relationship building, or finding your voice, these years can make or break any career.  Three women shared what they learned that helped them reach the success they have today and make their lessons work for them.

-Maryann Reid, Forbes Articles

1. Agree to Disagree

Advice given by Angele Robinson-Gaylord, President: IKEA Property, Inc.

  • As I began my career in commercial real estate, I had no idea how to build a career in this industry.  I did not study real estate in college or law school, had no family or personal connections to the industry, and was a female in a field that is overwhelmingly male. 
  • You have to be conversant in the language of real estate to do deals and build credibility.  
  • You have to recognize that every relationship is valuable. Your path will cross those of your peers time and again.  
  • When conducting transactions, you must be tough enough to get the deal done, yet you must learn to disagree agreeably to not gain a reputation as a deal killer.  
  • You must persevere in the face of any obstacle or naysayer to reach your goals.  In my case, it took 5 years to transition from practicing law to securing my first role on the business side of commercial real estate.  
  • Finally, I learned that you can’t do it alone.

2. Find Your Voice

Advice by Robin Kennedy, Executive Vice President, Acquisitions & Development: Montage International

  • Early in my career, I was put on the spot in a senior level meeting.  My opinion was different than many in the room, but I had a reasoned response. Granted, it was not the path that they chose, but that moment has had strong impact on me and served me well throughout my career.
  • Voicing my opinion was not always appropriate, as many times I wanted to learn from those with more experience.
  • But having this mindset has helped me to think about and become very practiced in how to make decisions.
  • It has helped me to take proactive ownership and move strategically forward.
  • At this point in my career, while the final decisions are often on my shoulders, I value those that can provide me with thoughtful opinions along the way.”

3. Trust Yourself

Lesley Horton Campbell, Associate General Counsel: Tiffany & Co.

  • Never be afraid to step up and trust that you are smart enough to handle a stretch assignment.
  • I made the mistake early on in my career of not stepping up for an assignment because I assumed that I was too junior and that naturally it would go to a more senior experienced colleague.
  • The next time the same opportunity came around, I quickly stepped up without hesitation and ended up knocking it out of the park.

Need help with environmental consulting? UES Consulting and our broad team of inspectors are skilled in the demands of commercial and multi-family transactions. We know how in-depth and time-sensitive Phase I Environmental Site Assessments and Property Condition Assessments are and we can help the process go smoothly and finish on time.

If you are looking for a company to partner with on your commercial real estate transactions of any kind, we are here to alleviate the weight of environmental issues and minimize risks. 

Multifamily Housing Market in 2019

Checkout a summary of 2019 trends in Multifamily Housing Markets…

In Freddie Mac’s Multifamily research, they found that “performance in the multifamily market remained healthy during 2018, despite high levels of new supply entering the market. We expect this trend to continue into 2019, but with more modest growth in comparison to recent years.”

2018 ended up with solid rent growth and only modest increases in vacancy rates despite an elevated level of new supply. There are some weakness’s in individual markets and submarkets.

New supply will remain elevated through 2019 and into 2020 but rents and vacancies will continue outperforming historical averages due to robust demand related to the rising cost of homeownership, changing demographics and consumer preferences.”

Cap rates have slightly fallen over the past couple quarters but they expect cap rates to rise in 2019 if Treasury rates increase.

“Multifamily origination volume is projected to grow to $317 billion in 2019 driven by solid market fundamentals and strong investor demand for multifamily properties.” This figure exceeds 2018’s statistic by 3.9 percent.In conclusion, “we expect 2019 to be another strong year for the multifamily industry. Homeownership affordability constraints and consumer trends will continue to drive demand, while strong rent growth will support property price growth.”

For full analysis click here.

Commercial Real Estate Industry Booming