What’s Next with Commercial Real Estate?

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Commercial Real Estate has never been in a better spot but you have to ask the question, what’s coming next?

MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell expressed his opinion for the sector at the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Servicing & Technology Conference.

“We’re currently in the longest economic expansion ever,” Woodwell said. “There have been a couple negative quarters here and there, but not two in a row, which is the definition of a recession. So there’s been an incredibly long run of economic expansion.“

Woodwell quoted multiple record-setting metrics: Commercial property cap rates are at record lows; MBA accounted a record $574 billion in multifamily and commercial mortgage bankers originations last year; plus loan delinquency rates are at or near record lows.

“So, there are a lot of phenomena going on, putting us in a place we’ve never seen before,” Woodwell said. “Thus, the question becomes what’s next?“

That answer is dependent on your outlook on life.

People on the optimistic spectrum may say they don’t see anything likely to change the current thriving situation. While others may say, “it’s been a great run, so I’m going to get ready for what comes next,” Woodwell said.UES Consulting Services, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments KC, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments Midwest, Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessments US, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments KC, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments Midwest, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments US, Phase I ESA, Phase I ESAs, Phase I ESAs KC, Phase I ESAs Midwest, Phase I ESAs US, Phase 1 ESAs, Phase 1 ESAs KC, Phase 1 ESAs Midwest, Phase 1 ESAs US, leader in environmental consulting and engineering services, engineering services Kansas City, environmental consulting Kansas City, Phase I Environmental Consulting, Phase 1 Environmental Consulting, Phase I Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase 1 Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase II Environmental Consulting, Phase 2 Environmental Consulting, Phase II Environmental Consulting Kansas City, Phase 2 Environmental Consulting Kansas City

So let’s get into the details…

Woodwell used the first quarter’s 3.2% real GDP growth rate to back the current strength of the U.S. economy. Unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point in 50 years and job growth has averaged above 200,000 per month thus far in 2019. “That’s boosted wages, which economists had expected would happen well before now,” said Woodwell.

On the other end, our economies great performance could guide some inflation pressure. “But that has not yet materialized,” Woodwell said. “Some think trade tariffs could start to bring more inflation on.”

With this economic situation, each commercial property type has a unique story to tell…

Multifamily sector: Moving fast in terms of both supply and demand for apartments. The younger generation is filling the shoes of their parents, which supports high demand for multifamily properties. The main surge is in Millennials since they’re beginning to demand apartments and form households; mainly high-quality urban newly developed apartments.

Office sector: Shows a long steady run of positive job growth, but on the flip side, companies are using a smaller space per employee; which leads to the recent fairly stable market. Nevertheless, wage pressure increases while employers struggle to keep their top employees in the middle of an extended strong job market.

“One tool employers could use would be to reverse the recent trend of shrinking office space and increase the room given to employees in an effort to compete for talent,” he said.

Retail sector: Definitely has witnessed the largest changes, mostly due to E-commerce, which has taken over almost 10% of all retail sales and persists to grow 3 basis points each quarter.

“But consumer consumption is strong enough that both E-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores can grow–as long as consumer spending continues, Woodwell said. “But if consumer spending should slip, which will lose more?,” he asked.

Industrial Sector: Has experienced positive evolving changes that have rarely been seen in the past such as new warehouse properties with a second or third story. With manufacturing shipments and E-commerce growing at record highs, the industrial sector continues to thrive–and evolve.

In conclusion…

“When I think about what’s likely to happen, I come back to the idea of a plateau,” Woodwell said. “Coming off a record year of originations, I don’t see much pulling those numbers down, and I also don’t see much pushing those numbers much higher, so we generally see a plateau for originations for the next few years. If we continue to run at this level, that still means growth in mortgage debt outstanding because of maturities, and that means there will likely be more need for servicers like you to service these loans.”

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Everything to know about Qualified Opportunity Zones in the United States

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So… what exactly is an Opportunity Zone?

Opportunity Zones are economically-distressed communities where new investments, under specific conditions, might be eligible for preferential tax treatment. Districts are eligible to be Opportunity Zones if they have been submitted for that classification by the state and that submission has been certified by the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury via his delegation of authority to the Internal Revenue Service.

What is the purpose of Opportunity Zones?

Opportunity Zones serve as an economic development tool. Furthermore, they are modeled to stimulate economic development and higher the job rate in distressed communities.

Have Opportunity Zones been around for a long time?

No, they were added to the tax code by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on December 22, 2017. The first set of Opportunity Zones, covering sections of 18 states, were selected on April 9, 2018. Opportunity Zones have now been appointed covering sections of all 50 states, five U.S. territories and the District of Columbia.

What is a Qualified Opportunity Fund?

A Qualified Opportunity Fund (QOF) is an investment vehicle that is designed as either a partnership or corporation for investing in qualified property that is in a Qualified Opportunity Zone.

How do Opportunity Zones stimulate economic development?

They are designed to boost economic development by providing tax benefits to investors. First off, investors can postpone tax on any prior gains invested in a Qualified Opportunity Fund (QOF) until the earlier of the date on which the investment in a QOF is sold or exchanged, or December 31, 2026. If the QOF investment is held for more than 5 years, there is a 10% exclusion of the postponed gain.  If held for longer than 7 years, the 10% becomes 15%. Next, if the investor holds the investment in the Opportunity Fund for at least ten years, the investor is qualified for growth in basis of the QOF investment equal to its fair market value on the date that the QOF investment is sold or exchanged.

Do I have to live in an Opportunity Zone to gain the tax benefits?

The answer is no. You may get the tax benefits, even if you don’t work, live or have a business in an Opportunity Zone. You just need to invest a recognized gain in a Qualified Opportunity Fund and elect to defer the tax on that gain.

Is there a list of Opportunity Zones obtainable?

Definitely. This list can be found at Opportunity Zones Resources and in the Federal Register at IRB Notice 2018-48.  In addition, a visual map of the census tracts designated as Qualified Opportunity Zones can be found at Opportunity Zones Resources.

I want to form a Qualified Opportunity Fund. Can  I access a list of Opportunity Zones available in which the Fund can invest?

Yes, this list can be found at Notice 2018-48.

Is it possible for a limited liability company (LLC) to be an Opportunity Fund?

Absolutely. A LLC that decides to be treated as a partnership or corporation for federal tax purposes can classify as a Qualified Opportunity Fund.

How does a partnership or corporation get certified as a Qualified Opportunity Fund?

An eligible partnership or corporation self-certifies by filing Form 8996, Qualified Opportunity Fund, with its federal income tax return. Early-release drafts of the form and instructions are posted, with final versions due in December. The return with Form 8996 has to be filed timely, taking extensions into consideration.

How can I get more information about Opportunity Zones?

Check out this article for more details on Opportunity Zones.

The Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service will be giving more details, including further legal guidance, on this new tax benefit.

Need help with environmental consulting, Phase I Environmental Site Assessments, Property Condition Assessments or Phase II Subsurface Investigations?

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