This week, the MBA Newslink published the Urban Land Institute in Washington, D.C.,’s findings from a survey of real estate economists. Overall, the consensus is that the recession caused by the pandemic will be short-lived and we may see an above-average GDP growth in 2021-2022. Some good news! Overall, the ULI Semi-Annual Real Estate Economic […]
The UES team attended MBA CREF in San Diego this week. It’s always a great meeting, chocked full of quality education, networking with clients and making new connections. The MBA does a good job of delivering market trends, forecasts for the year ahead and information that we need to help guide our environmental consulting services.
A few things that stood out this year:
1. Most leaders agree that while we’ve heard a recession is coming, we are still in a good space in terms of growth and liquidity in the market. Lenders are making better credit choices and commercial real estate professionals are focusing on making good deals that can ride out hiccups or shifts should they arise. From listening in on one panel Monday morning, several market leaders believe we are still 18-24 months away from seeing a slow to growth and decreased liquidity. Globe St.Com has a deeper dive into this particular panel and their discussions.
2. Across the board, commercial real estate professionals are in agreement that international affairs, such as concern over the spread of the coronavirus, and the upcoming US election has the potential to impact Q4 of 2020 and the start of 2021. Speakers at MBA stated that their organizations are planning ahead for some volatility in Q4 and working to see how many deals they can close prior to November.
3. Multifamily continues to have it’s moment. And, the market is seeing a wide variety of lending players jumping in. Banks are more involved than in prior years in providing capital. CMBS is making a comeback and the ultra-wealthy are getting involved in the space through investment funds.
Lenders involved in the multifamily market in 2020
Stay tuned to the UES blog for a few more highlights from the last day!
As our digital footprint expands, so does our innate desire to connect with and be apart of a community. Much community starts with our living environment and how we are able to connect with those in close proximity, along with the neighborhood for which we inhabit.
As mixed use multi-family continues is growth across all markets in the US, developers and planners are thinking less about privacy and isolation, and more about connecting those that will life, work and play in the space. Along with how they will interact with the retail, restaurants and other “neighbors” within their ecosphere.
The Science Behind Lifestyle Amenities and Community Building
A recent blog featured on multifamilybiz.com by author Kerry Kirby, highlights this burgeoning trend and how it looks to affect not only developers, but commercial brokers looking to lease space and place clients in these new mixed use multi-family complexes.
Kirby highlights a social psychology phenomenon called the “propinquity effect”. Social psychologists theorize and tested the concept that physical space is the key to friendship formation as opposed to original thinking that values, opinions and beliefs were the key factors in friendship formation. As the author dives further into this concept, it’s clear that trends in more communal living spaces within a multi-family complex such as digital meet-up areas, living rooms, shared workspaces and other community building spaces are changing the way we build relationships and build community.
Putting it to Work
A great example of this lifestyle forward amenity offering is going up right in our own backyard in Kansas City, MO. The Opus Group is developing a lifestyle amenity rich luxury apartment living experience to the vibrant historic Westport area. Along with that luxury living experience, comes the opportunity for mixed use retail space marketed by Colliers International. Restaurants, retail shops and other neighborhood oriented business are being attracted to the lower levels of this complex. A welcome addition to the urban landscape.
And all of these factors below combined led to an eight percent increase in recorded Multifamily Lending compared to last year.
“First liens accounted for 96 percent of the total dollar volume closed. The reported dollar volume of commercial and multifamily mortgages closed last year was eight percent higher than the volume reported in 2017. Among repeat participants in the survey, the dollar volume of closed loans increased by four percent.”
Jamie Woodwell Vice President, Mortgage Bankers Association
With loan originations on the rise, the need for site assessments has never been more important. UES Consulting and our team of inspectors are well-versed in the demands of commercial and multi-family transactions and how thorough, time-sensitive Phase I Environmental Site Assessments and Property Condition Assessments can help the process run smoothly and close on time. If you are looking for a company to partner with on your Commercial Real Estate transactions of any kind, turn to our in-house engineers and environmental consultants to alleviate the burden of environmental issues and mitigate risks.
Information by MBA, Click here to purchase the complete report.
MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell expressed his opinion for the sector at the MBA Commercial/Multifamily Servicing & Technology Conference.
“We’re currently in the longest economic expansion ever,” Woodwell said. “There have been a couple negative quarters here and there, but not two in a row, which is the definition of a recession. So there’s been an incredibly long run of economic expansion.“
Woodwell quoted multiple record-setting metrics: Commercial property cap rates are at record lows; MBA accounted a record $574 billion in multifamily and commercial mortgage bankers originations last year; plus loan delinquency rates are at or near record lows.
“So, there are a lot of phenomena going on, putting us in a place we’ve never seen before,” Woodwell said. “Thus, the question becomes what’s next?“
That answer is dependent on your outlook on life.
People on the optimistic spectrum may say they don’t see anything likely to change the current thriving situation. While others may say, “it’s been a great run, so I’m going to get ready for what comes next,” Woodwell said.
Woodwell used the first quarter’s 3.2% real GDP growth rate to back the current strength of the U.S. economy. Unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point in 50 years and job growth has averaged above 200,000 per month thus far in 2019. “That’s boosted wages, which economists had expected would happen well before now,” said Woodwell.
On the other end, our economies great performance could guide some inflation pressure. “But that has not yet materialized,” Woodwell said. “Some think trade tariffs could start to bring more inflation on.”
Multifamily sector: Moving fast in terms of both supply and demand for apartments. The younger generation is filling the shoes of their parents, which supports high demand for multifamily properties. The main surge is in Millennials since they’re beginning to demand apartments and form households; mainly high-quality urban newly developed apartments.
Office sector: Shows a long steady run of positive job growth, but on the flip side, companies are using a smaller space per employee; which leads to the recent fairly stable market. Nevertheless, wage pressure increases while employers struggle to keep their top employees in the middle of an extended strong job market.
“One tool employers could use would be to reverse the recent trend of shrinking office space and increase the room given to employees in an effort to compete for talent,” he said.
Retail sector: Definitely has witnessed the largest changes, mostly due to E-commerce, which has taken over almost 10% of all retail sales and persists to grow 3 basis points each quarter.
“But consumer consumption is strong enough that both E-commerce and brick-and-mortar stores can grow–as long as consumer spending continues, Woodwell said. “But if consumer spending should slip, which will lose more?,” he asked.
Industrial Sector: Has experienced positive evolving changes that have rarely been seen in the past such as new warehouse properties with a second or third story. With manufacturing shipments and E-commerce growing at record highs, the industrial sector continues to thrive–and evolve.
“When I think about what’s likely to happen, I come back to the idea of a plateau,” Woodwell said. “Coming off a record year of originations, I don’t see much pulling those numbers down, and I also don’t see much pushing those numbers much higher, so we generally see a plateau for originations for the next few years. If we continue to run at this level, that still means growth in mortgage debt outstanding because of maturities, and that means there will likely be more need for servicers like you to service these loans.”
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admin2021-01-18 20:34:112021-01-18 20:34:11Kansas City Development Landscape Still Booming!
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admin2020-11-10 18:29:142020-11-18 18:34:12Medical Office Buildings a Safe Haven Asset During Uncertain Times; Physician Practices Still Struggle
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admin2020-02-11 22:22:132020-02-11 22:22:13MBA CREF 2020 RecapThe event, Power of Words, was held in the Power and Light District in Kansas City, Missouri by Youth Ambassadors(YA). YA is a not-for-profit organization that empowers undeserved youth with important life skills, soft job skills, creative expression, and adult mentors who help them become future community leaders willing and able to work for positive change. 
There were original works from the programs students that attendees could enter to win in a raffle. Here’s an example of one of the students work. Students presented impressive poems and writing excerpts during the dinner. It was an amazing event aimed to paint a brighter future for some of Kansas City’s most vulnerable and at-risk youth.
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admin2020-11-18 09:37:552020-11-18 18:39:58ULI Sets Forecast for a Potential 2021-2022 Rebound
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admin2020-02-11 22:22:132020-02-11 22:22:13MBA CREF 2020 Recap
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Mollie Beck2020-01-09 18:49:582020-02-09 18:51:00Advice on Avoiding Issues with the ADA“Over the last few months, news channels have been filled with stories about movements that are directly affecting the U.S. economy and real estate investments.“
-Dan Dokovic Managing Partner, Co-Founder at Bamboo Equity Partners, a leading CRE investment firm.
The first is the news of rising interest rates, trade wars dominating the airways, government shutdown all leading towards business uncertainty. Second is the quick pace of advancing technology which affecting commercial real estate space. Lastly, as seen nationwide popular retailers are quickly closing down and declaring bankruptcy forcing shopping centers to clear out or shut down at rapid rates.
“The real estate industry has become the poster child for uncertainty and anxiety.”
Get ahead of the curve with 3 practical applications below that will help you stay relevant and pivot quickly in response to the shifting industry movements.
“Real estate investment companies should reconsider their existing tenant mix. Long gone are the days of 10 to 15 year leases. With any uncertainty in the business market, corporations are often looking for a short-term lease.“
Therefore, re-evaluate your long-term leases & business model.
“While short-term leases may alter financial forecasting and real estate valuation, immediate increases in net operating income will outweigh the risk of carrying the vacant space.“
A major trend is to start diversifying the tenant mixes for overall appeal of your property. An example is mall owners are lending their empty space to startup restaurants, co-working companies, or incubators in hopes it will lure more tenants into the property. These tenants don’t pay rent or nearly as much but will increase foot traffic, visibility, and popularity.
Practical First Step: Initiate partnerships with co-working companies, entice new-age tenants by enhancing your digital strategy, and enlarge your leasing capabilities.
In uncertain times it’s important to focus on growth capital and support from partners and peers. For future stability and success it’s vital to build relationships.
“While the industry is in the growth cycle, capital is bountiful. However, as soon as the cycle turns, having capital is the difference between muddling through and controlling destiny.”
“Understanding and growing capital relationships comes in two forms: existing capital sources and new prospects with unrelated capital allocations.”
For existing capital relationships, constant communication is crucial. Banking relationships vary with the economic cycles change. Investment executives need to keep in step with bank’s directions and anticipate said direction would have on business.
Here are some examples…
According to past data, these changes in real estate are not hitting all markets. An example is the highs and lows of employment rates may affect the office market but the industrial market could flourish due to the increased shift towards e-commerce.
“According to Trepp Bank Research’s April 2017 report of historical CRE losses, self-storage had the lowest average loan loss severity of all property sectors at 1.52%, while manufacturing housing loss was at 3.53%. Comparatively, in a different sector, retail had an average loss rate of 6.17% and office at 6.13%. While taking into consideration these examples, property sectors (per research completed by Nareit in December 2018) and manufactured homes provided total returns of 24.93% and 11.43% for the years 2017 and 2018, respectively.“
Gaining property sector diversity can lessen risk across your business. But be cautious in your decisions. “While diversification can provide a footing to weather storms, businesses must be prudent as diversification efforts have their own risks. “
What oversights can be pulled from current practices?
Who are the allies in this diversification process?
“To stay relevant, future real estate leaders need to continue on the path of innovation. While transformation is tough, the only way to continue growing is to advance with the times. As it was in previous cycles, great things come to those who are able to pivot during the hardest times.“
